Baird's CMC

Could Libya become a constitutional democracy?

francois — Fri, 18 Mar 2011 11:18:50 +0000

As the civic pot boils in North Africa and the Middle East, it is time to consider the ingredients for future success in these troubled hot spots.

While it is an article of faith among many African elites that democracy in Africa cannot be a mere replica of the democratic system in the West, (meaning Europe and North America), it seems clear that ordinary Africans seem to want the same protections and opportunities offered by these settled, if flawed (each in its own way) democracies.

The make-up of the democratic system is not as important to people as what the system must deliver to them; guaranteed freedom in every respect. To the chagrin of the ruling elites this mostly means the same thing to Africans as it means to Europeans and Americans, namely that freedom is indivisible and encompassess basic personal freedoms like movement, association, religion, speech, economic activity and a free press, to name a few. Freedom breaks the hold that powerful elites have on ordinary individuals.

Only a constitutional democracy satisfies all the requirements for establishing lasting freedoms. Can a country like Libya end up free? Yes, if it becomes a proper constitutional democracy.

Perhaps it is time to convene the best constitution writing scholars, legal experts and politicians in the world today, to help these societies in transition? Who knows, they may even help Libya to become a constitutional democracy, eventually.

The prospects for post-revolutionary democracy

francois — Thu, 24 Feb 2011 12:37:34 +0000

As Libya explodes, the big question is; what comes next for those North African countries where people got rid of the dictators. It seems most of the people in these countries hope for true participatory democracy. Will their hopes for a transition to true democracy be realised?

South Africa offers the best guide to what is needed for peaceful transition to a functioning participatory democracy.

Consider its path to true democracy: The National Party which ruled the country from1948 to 1994 fought the first election against the party it banned for all that time, joined the ANC as minority party in a government of national unity and then limped into history; mortally wounded at the ballot box and finally wiped out by poor leadership. Today the official leader of the opposition is the Democratic Alliance (DA) that rules the Western Cape Province, but it has less than a third of the seats in the national parliament.

The ruling African National Congress (ANC) has by now successfully fought serial election campaigns at national and local government level, survived a messy leadership transition and maintained democracy in South Africa. It faces another local government election later this year.

While South Africa seemingly provides a hopeful road map for establishing democracy in North Africa and the Middle East, there is doubt about a similarly favourable outcome for northern Africa’s post-revolutionary era, for lack of the very pillars on which participatory democracy rests in South Africa.

These pillars are institutional capacity, good leadership and preparation for governing. Founded in 1912, the ANC was a well-established political machine by 1994, with an array of supporting organisations and organising capabilities domestically and across the globe. Its people and leadership had been preparing to govern for decades. Moreover, in Nelson Mandela, O.R. Tambo and Walter Sisulu(the latter two still alive at the time), the ANC top leadership had the vision, experience and stature to command respect across ideological and race divisions and to direct and manage the cadre of younger leaders whom they had long been grooming for government. Critically, the organisation and its leaders were unconditionally committed to true participatory democracy and human rights. As a result, there was never a void or a lack of democratic instinct.

Today, South Africa’s democratic credentials are widely accepted, its people participate actively in democratic activity, it has a free press and even if the opposition parties are weak, they are not oppressed. This success in transitioning peacefully to sustainable participatory democracy rests on the pillars of strong leadership, and institutional preparation for democracy and governance.

Which of these pillars of participatory democracy are present in Tunisia, in Egypt, or in Libya? The world’s democracies should assist these countries and others to develop the institutional and leadership capacity for transitioning to functioning and sustainable democracy.

Protest in the Middle East: Fight or Flight?

francois — Sat, 29 Jan 2011 12:40:04 +0000

The Middle East so far has two role models for dealing with pro-democracy protests; Iran and Tunisia. They represent a choice as old as man; fight or flight. The rarer choice is a peaceful transition to legitimate democracy.

The fight impulse requires confidence and guns to succeed. In Iran, the protesters are being violently repressed by a regime willing to wage war against its own people, confident that the military and the other security forces will carry out the will of the government against the people and to commit whatever atrocities necessary to bring the protests under control. Violent suppression can succeed in its aims for a long time, as the Mugabe government in Zimbabwe and the North Korean dictatorship demonstrate. However, suppression has a sell-by date, even if the date itself is almost always a surprise. See East Germany, 1989.

The flight impulse results from a lack of confidence and insecurity about which way the guns will point. In Tunisia, the government lost confidence in its own ability to suppress the unrest by committing the security forces to violence against its people. Lacking confidence, the leadership fled and the protests seem to be evolving into a successful revolution. The early euphoria is no guarantee of legitimate democracy being successfully established.

Illegitimate regimes only have a choice between fight or flight. There are no other options once the populace decide to challenge the regime en masse. The genius of legitimate democracy is that it creates stability by allowing a third choice: peaceful democratic transition. South Africa is a rare example of peaceful transition to legitimate democracy from an undemocratic state.

The uprisings in the Middle East will only succeed where the regime lacks the will to turn guns on its people. Most protests would most likely be suppressed. It is not yet clear whether even successful uprisings will eventually result in legitimate democracy.

As for Egypt specifically, its people could yet win this one if the world’s democracies put pressure on the Egyptian government to create conditions for a peaceful transition to legitimate democracy. If not, Egyptions will learn to regret the lack of will amongst the world’s democracies, if the Egyption generals shortly make the decision to fight. Of course the generals may in turn regret such a choice, but in the longer term. Suppress in haste, regret at leisure…

If there is a successful revolution or a peaceful transition through legitimate elections in Egypt, the dictators in the Middle East are all doomed in due course. Then, the clock may run out faster for suppression in the Middle East than now expected. Will we see fight or flight, or dare we dream that the rara avis of peaceful transition to legitimate democracy could take off anywhere or even everywhere in the Middle East?

Remmy Ongala RIP

francois — Wed, 29 Dec 2010 12:42:02 +0000

The voice of “The Doctor”, Remmy Ongala is quiet at age 63. This is more than a loss to music, it is a loss to all Africans who care about the issues of our continent. For instance, he was an early, important and effective influence on issues like HIV/Aids at a time when most of Africa was still in denial. Think of his early nineties song “Mambo Kwa Soksi” about condom use.

Hamba kahle, Doctor!

One Africa for Growth

francois — Tue, 28 Dec 2010 12:42:45 +0000

The recent news about the opening of a streamlined new border post between South Africa and Mozambique would be particularly good news if it does indeed speed up the movement of people and goods between South Africa and Mozambique. A streamlined border will not only benefit tourism, but also enhance trade and Foreign Direct Investment (FDI).

The FDI benefit to Africa of opening up borders to trade is very often underestimated. In Conversations Behind Closed Doors – our Baird’s CMC study of American C-suite executives’ attitudes toward investment in Africa in partnership with the US Chamber of Commerce, respondents pointed out that slow borders are obstacles to investment. The reason why slow borders handicap investment is quite simple and logical: many national markets in Africa are too small to merit investments on an acceptable scale by multinational corporations. This phenomenon is not unique to Africa; Switzerland recently joined the Schengen treaty which opened its borders to the Schengen countries giving Swiss based corporations easy access to the attractive Schengen treaty markets of German, Netherlands, Italy and France, amongst others.

To take an Africa example, like land-locked Switzerland, Botswana is not a big enough market by itself to attract investment, but because it is a well-run democracy, Botswana could become attractive as a corporate base for multinational investors targeting Botswana’s neighbours, meaning that the region would swell Botswana’s tiny internal market to acceptable size. However, the experience of logistics companies I consulted, is that the cross-border speed is simply not fast enough for multi-national corporations. Botswana would therefore have to become a more easily accessible hub for the region if it wants significant FDI from these companies. This means opening the borders with its neighbours (or at least some of them, if it is skittish about Zimbabwe) to gain the long term economic growth benefits of FDI. But there is also a price to pay for open borders, in the form of increased competition, migration and other social impacts.

The question is whether Botswana and its neighbours want to live with all the consequences of open borders?

“Yes, we can.”

admin — Sun, 28 Nov 2010 12:43:37 +0000

The importance of communications in a political campaign cannot be overstated. Jacob Sesinyi, associate at Baird’s CMC, believes that the American president, Barack Hussein Obama’s recent election campaign showcased communications at its best.

“Obama’s achievement illustrated the sheer power of good communication. His presidential campaign was not too technical or too philosophical. It just stated facts in the simplest way possible for people to understand and appreciate, which is the crux of effective communication. You cannot buy that understanding and support, or get it by throwing extravagant parties. No, you must tell it how it is. Obama said, ‘I want to change America.’ Then, he told the people how he was going to go about doing that. He said, ‘I will do X, Y, and Z – that’s how.’” explains Jacob.

The same principles hold true for good corporate communications too. Says Jacob, “For a company, the most important thing is to correctly communicate whatever it is going. You can have an excellent project or policy, but if you don’t communicate it well, it is a flop! Communications has to be an integral part of strategic planning – it cannot come as an afterthought. Companies should be aware of the reputational implications of each decision. If they can have benefits of knowing possible implications, they can be proactive.”

In the end, what drives communications experts like Jacob is harnessing the potential of something everybody has but is always underestimated in power – communicating with people. Says Jacob, “It is an amazing realization – knowing that by listening, talking, giving and receiving feedback, and appraising, you can save millions and really make a difference.”

The Wild, Wild West of Mobile Telephony in Emerging Markets

admin — Wed, 10 Nov 2010 20:37:49 +0000

The mobile phone sector is fast becoming the meeting point for those who want to do good and those who want to do good business, especially in the emerging markets. Cell phones are no longer just tools for communication, they are now also the medium for providing micro finance, healthcare services, business opportunities, and vital information to low-income populations that otherwise would not have access to these. For example:

In Kenya, a program called M-Pesa allows for cross-border money transfers in addition to domestic bill payments for television services or insurance schemes.
In India, rural fishermen in remote villages are using their mobile phones to check on the national rates of fish and on weather conditions, thus helping increase the transparency of market data, boosting productivity, and facilitating trade.¹
In over 50,000 villages in Bangladesh, Uganda, and Rwanda, the Village Phone programme launched by Grameen telecom enables poor rural subscribers to own a phone and turn it into a business venture; the subscriber can buy, on credit, a simple mobile phone with very cheap billing rates to provide paid services to people in the adjoining area.

Other mobile phone innovations include “torch phones” that are designed specifically for people living in areas without electricity; multiple phone-books on single handsets for rural populations in India where many family members use a single phone; phones that can be charged using solar energy in Africa; and the buying and selling of goods via phone auctions in Bangladesh.²

Mobile Phones to the Rescue

The global spread of mobile phones has truly been amazing. No other technology has narrowed the gap between the developed and developing world so rapidly. In 2000, mobile phones were primarily available in developed economies; today, they have become a universal technology with more than 4 billion subscribers in 2008, up from 1.4 billion just five years ago.³ About two-thirds of these mobile phone users live in the developing world, with the BRIC countries (Brazil, Russia, India, and China) accounting for four out of the top five countries in terms of mobile subscription numbers. The collective impact of mobile telephony helps to boost economic growth and has the potential to raise people out of poverty, especially in developing countries.⁴

The market in these emerging economies is far from saturated. Even though India and China account for the some of the largest numbers of mobile phone subscribers worldwide, the trend has remained mostly an urban phenomenon, leaving the rural market ripe for mobile phone technology.⁵

Sub-Saharan Africa is another big growth frontier, says Francois Baird, co-founder of Baird’s CMC. A global study recently conducted by Baird’s CMC for the U.S. Chamber of Commerce showed that Africa has a potential mobile telephony market of 1 billion people. Baird, who helped facilitate a series of closed-door conversations between American CEOs from Fortune 100 companies and high-level African officials, explains that mobile phones are a way to leapfrog over the poor infrastructure problems that have typically plagued the Sub-Saharan region and kept large parts of the population from connectivity – the dependency on fixed-line phones⁶ with their accompanying infrastructure requirements can now easily be replaced with the mobility and cost-effectiveness of cell phones.

Pared to this growth in mobile telephony is the increase in the mobile internet in Africa. With the citizens of the continent increasingly relying on mobile telephony to drive entrepreneurial business growth, so to are they using their mobile handsets to reach segments they previously did not have access to thanks to internet connectivity. Furthermore, the increasing awareness and use of social media platforms is also driving the virtual gold rush to online products and services that take cognisance of limited bandwidth and slower internet connectivity than other markets.

Yet, says Baird, despite the enormous business potential, investors remain hesitant to enter the market because they don’t quite know or understand the landscape.

Navigating New Terrains

Indeed, as Dilip Cherian, a senior Baird’s CMC associate based in India puts it, the mobile phone market in these emerging economies is not unlike the wild west of yore – there’s a lot of “gold” as yet to be discovered, a lot of good as yet to be done, and vast tracks of still unknown terrain filled with all the potential opportunities and dangers.

Some possible dangers for new entrants in the Indian market especially, he explains, are high licensing fees and limited spectrum allocation. “The regulatory environment can be a real challenge,” says Cherian. “What you’ll often find is that during spectrum auctions, people are getting spectrum based on favouritism. And the result of this spectrum tussle is exorbitantly high prices and fees for new entrants.” Cherian says that established players in many of these emerging markets often influence government policies to give them the edge in an extremely dynamic and competitive environment, much to the detriment of cash-strapped new entrants who sink before they even have a chance to swim. Indeed, in the context-heavy culture of these markets, who you know and whose ear you have determine whether you are given the necessary tools – the right amount of spectrum bandwidth or policy regulations that benefit your business bottom line – to survive.

Other challenges for the mobile phone sector in emerging economies are asymmetric taxation on mobile usage (e.g., in some countries, such as Turkey, taxes represent as much as 44 percent of the cost of owning and operating a mobile telephone⁷); constantly changing regulatory policies that sow confusion and uncertainty in the minds of industry players, thus making it hard to attract international capital; and a quagmire of bureaucracy and politics.

To ARPU or not to ARPU

As a result, many new entrants are forced to put most of their efforts into tackling these challenges instead of focusing on increasing their average revenue per user (ARPU) rate, says Dev Chakrabortyy, a consultant at Perfect Relations (a Baird’s CMC implementation partner), who specialises in the telecom sector. A high ARPU rate, as he explains, is one of the most important differentiators in determining which company stays the course and which company drops out of the race in the long term. New mobile phone entrants have the potential to garner huge gains by creating innovative services that increase their ARPU rates; he describes one global company he worked with whose subscriber base quadrupled once it entered the Indian market. “The audience for varied content tailored to niche communities, e.g., the fisherman in Kerala or the call-centre executive in Mumbai, definitely exists,” says Chakrabortyy.

Urban centres in the BRIC regions, with the advent of 3G technology, are especially conducive for innovative multimedia such as games and video streaming. The rural markets shouldn’t be ignored either, says Chakrabortyy, pointing out that according to the World Bank, virtually all new mobile customers in the coming years will come from rural sectors in developing countries. The expansion creates huge opportunities for businesses providing services that will be able to reach millions of new low-income consumers. These services could include market information, financial services, education, and health services that have largely been unavailable in these areas due to the lack of connectivity. “2G technology works just as well in these areas. Simple information about crop rates or relevant news to local areas can fare very well in increasing ARPU rates,” explains Chakrabortyy.

Unfortunately, to be able to invest in creating these services and in truly understanding the needs of the end-user requires times and money, a lot of which, if not handled properly, can go into navigating the political and bureaucratic terrain of these emerging economies. “What is needed is someone on-the-ground who knows the landscape well, who can tell you where it is headed, and who can help you lobby to the right people so that you don’t get caught in the gunfire of price wars and political battles,” says Cherian, an expert on emerging economies. As he puts it, if new entrants, with the proper input, manage to steer their way through these potential challenges, what awaits them is “a whole wide world of opportunity.”

¹You can read more about this in a 2007 paper titled: “The Digital Provide: Information (Technology), Market Performance, and Welfare in the South Indian Fisheries Sector” by R. Jenson. According to the paper, the fishermen in Kerala who used mobile phones in this way increased their profits by 8 percent, whereas consumers on average paid 4 percent less for their fish.

²These examples are mentioned in the World Economic Forum’s “Global Information Technology Report 2008-2009″

³Source: International Telecommunications Union (ITU)

⁴The World Bank estimated in 2009 that for every 10 percentage points increase in mobile telephony subscription levels, economic growth increased by 0.8 percentage points in developing countries and by 0.6 percentage points in developed economies.

⁵In 2008, according to the ITU, China had a penetration rate of 48 mobile subscriptions per 100 inhabitants and India a rate of 30.1 per 100.

⁶According to the ITU, only 2.8% of the African population currently has a fixed-line phone

⁷Source: World Economic Forum’s “Global Information Technology Report 2008-2009″

The Wild, Wild West of Mobile Telephony in Emerging Markets

admin — Wed, 10 Nov 2010 12:36:10 +0000

In Kenya, a program called M-Pesa allows for cross-border money transfers in addition to domestic bill payments for television services or insurance schemes.
In India, rural fishermen in remote villages are using their mobile phones to check on the national rates of fish and on weather conditions, thus helping increase the transparency of market data, boosting productivity, and facilitating trade.¹
In over 50,000 villages in Bangladesh, Uganda, and Rwanda, the Village Phone programme launched by Grameen telecom enables poor rural subscribers to own a phone and turn it into a business venture; the subscriber can buy, on credit, a simple mobile phone with very cheap billing rates to provide paid services to people in the adjoining area.

Mobile Phones to the Rescue

The global spread of mobile phones has truly been amazing. No other technology has narrowed the gap between the developed and developing world so rapidly. In 2000, mobile phones were primarily available in developed economies; today, they have become a universal technology with more than 4 billion subscribers in 2008, up from 1.4 billion just five years ago.³About two-thirds of these mobile phone users live in the developing world, with the BRIC countries (Brazil, Russia, India, and China) accounting for four out of the top five countries in terms of mobile subscription numbers. The collective impact of mobile telephony helps to boost economic growth and has the potential to raise people out of poverty, especially in developing countries.⁴

Yet, says Baird, despite the enormous business potential, investors remain hesitant to enter the market because they don’t quite know or understand the landscape.

Navigating New Terrains

To ARPU or not to ARPU

²These examples are mentioned in the World Economic Forum’s “Global Information Technology Report 2008-2009″

³Source: International Telecommunications Union (ITU)

⁵In 2008, according to the ITU, China had a penetration rate of 48 mobile subscriptions per 100 inhabitants and India a rate of 30.1 per 100.

⁶According to the ITU, only 2.8% of the African population currently has a fixed-line phone

⁷Source: World Economic Forum’s “Global Information Technology Report 2008-2009″

A Development Dilemma

markcha — Mon, 08 Nov 2010 12:44:38 +0000

“This one time, I was in a meeting of African health ministers, and they were being lectured by a group of very well-meaning Europeans and Americans (who, by the way, are very keen on lecturing Africans in general). Finally, the health minister of Cote-d’Ivoire (Ivory Coast) had had enough of this,” Mark chuckles, “so he stood up and said, ‘It might have escaped your notice but you stopped running this country 50 years ago.’ The American and European delegation was pretty quiet after that – I think they were a bit lost for words!”

“That’s an anecdote but that is the strain that underlies a lot of international development assistance. There’s the whole long-standing argument about who really does know best,” explains Mark. “The Americans are pretty overt about saying they know where they want their money spent. The Europeans try, at least on paper, to say that they want to support sovereign governments and what they want to do – but, in fact, of course they also interfere.”

This is indeed a fundamental question about development assistance: To what extent should the countries that provide the development assistance decide what the priorities are for that money? Mark emphasises that there are no simple answers to this very big question. “I think it’s undoubtedly true that in most developing countries, the poorest of the poor – who are the target of the development money in most cases – are not politically powerful. There are, of course, exceptions, but they’re not going to be the natural political constituency that has to be appeased. This is the case even in industrialised countries… The rich have been getting richer and the poor poorer even in the U.S.!” says Mark.

Mark thinks if western governments do want their money to be focused on the poorest of the poor, then they’re going to have to be fairly proactive about saying that’s what they’re giving the money for – and that will inevitably cause resentment. “By the way, even when the poorest of the poor are in control, it may not mean the donors are any happier with they where their money’s going. Just because the historically most disadvantaged are now in charge, it’s not a recipe for excellent government spending. I’m sure you can think of several examples,” Mark says with a wry smile, reminding us that the issue is not black and white, and that preconceived notions and assumptions simply don’t cut it when it comes to the dilemma of development assistance.

Emerging Democracies and Green Issues

admin — Tue, 26 Oct 2010 20:36:46 +0000

In December, world leaders will meet in Cancun to talk about climate change (the “Conference of Parties 16/CMP 6 Kyoto Protocol” conference). Some see it as a chance to redeem the 2009 Copenhagen Summit that left several EU ministers weeping on the side of the hall; others think that it is likely to be a low-key prelude to the 2012 environment summit in Rio de Janeiro (the “Rio +20 meeting” that aims to build on the historic 1992 conference on the environment).

Baird’s CMC decided to ask leading expert journalists and bloggers in the world’s emerging democracies about the political and social context for what Brazil, India, and South Africa will do about climate change over the next few years.

We saw a marked difference between the countries:

Green issues are becoming central to the political dialogue in Brazil and a major domestic preoccupation in the run-up to 2012 environment summit in Rio de Janeiro.
There is growing popular concern about environmental issues in India but it is not strong enough to curb the desire for economic growth and lifting Indians out of poverty.
South Africa’s government is strongly criticised by its own journalists and bloggers for seeing the major responsibility on Green issues as lying with donors. It has, though, taken some bold moves by linking new coal-powered fuel generation to an expansion of renewables and by introducing a controversial carbon tax.“At CoP 16, Cancun, India and other developing nations will convince the world that they hold the key to emissions reductions and that this will be done on their own terms.”
“The current perception is that the South African government is not really looking at substantially minimising our greenhouse gas emissions – and they’re not planning to start doing it any time soon.”

“CoP 16 is going to be a mess for Brazil, to be honest. We’re at the end of a government and any negotiation will be complicated.”

Overall, Green issues are moving up the agenda in each of the newly powerful democracies but especially in Brazil, the host of the 2012 summit. We were struck by the opportunity that seems to exist for those who can frame Green issues in terms of economic and social opportunities rather than in the conventional terms of threat and obligation. We asked some of the respondents about the kinds of ideas developed by Resource Media’s Kirk Brown in his Green Growth paper. Not all liked them, of course, but all thought that they could easily become part of the national dialogue.

What the journalists and bloggers thought

Baird’s CMC spoke to 23 expert journalists, working for leading dailies and weeklies, and to 11 specialist bloggers across the three countries. We worked with our partners on this project – Baird’s Renaissance in South Africa; Fundamento in Brazil; and Hyderus in India. All have common shareholders with Baird’s CMC. We asked our respondents about the following:

Whether the issue of climate change is being prioritised
The political realities and pressures that their governments face regarding climate change
Their governments’ likely negotiating positions at the upcoming in Cancun, Mexico, as well as likely outcomes
Whether their governments are seen as “deal-makers” or “deal-breakers” in international climate change agreements

The responses of these interviewees reflect the unique set of circumstances present in each country. Key findings capture a range of perspectives, enabling Baird’s CMC to pinpoint emerging trends while taking into account other opinions at the same time.

Here is a snapshot of some of our findings.

Brazil

Green issues are becoming a critical part of the domestic political debate in Brazil. In the first round of the country’s 2010 Presidential elections, the Green candidate, Marina Silva, won almost 20% of the vote (the strongest third-party performance in presidential elections since Brazil was restored to democracy in 1985) and forced a run-off – something that Europe’s Greens can only dream about. Silva was born to an illiterate family in the Amazon and is a life-long champion of forest preservation. She refused to endorse either the right-wing or left-wing candidates in the run-off but left open the possibility of going into government with either. Brazil’s Greens may now be the most influential Green party in the world.

Important issues in the emerging economy of Brazil include the following: the energy grid and investment in technology for alternate sources of energy, especially for cars; deforestation, especially of the Amazon, and the impact on carbon retention; REDD goals; and clean water. Climate change is increasingly being perceived as a critical component of Brazil’s overall sustainable development and economic growth: prioritising climate change is important insofar as it will enable Brazil to keep apace with the rest of the developed world. At the same time, as one respondent pointed out, climate change

considerations formed a barrier for current businesses, as rapid growth often came at a high environmental cost.

The increasing interest in Green issues has translated into heightened media attention as well. The majority of respondents felt that the press had begun to take climate change seriously. Traditional media in the country has become engaged and involved with the issue (even though it is not yet prioritised by editors). New media tends to focus on sustainability – and climate change is considered an important component.

Dealing with climate change: Corporations, politicians, and society

Different groups within the country are responding to the climate change concern in their own ways. The Brazilian government is under pressure from the country’s business community, which has been mobilising itself and making changes in the interest of larger sustainability strategies. A number of respondents pointed out that the business sector’s climate change agenda was also driven by a desire to meet international certification standards as these directly affect business outcomes. Non-governmental organisations, social groups, and private initiatives are the other key players exerting pressure on the government in a bid to protect the environment. These efforts have met with some success: the general perception is that Brazil has been working towards sustainability in recent years (particularly in the field of clean energy, e.g., wind power and hydro-electricity projects). However, one interviewee said that government itself is primarily concerned with infrastructure in order to ensure rapid development, often oblivious to environmental and sustainability costs; s/he gave the example of President Lula’s statement that no matter what the cost, Brazil was going to host the 2014 World Cup. Many respondents felt that only the Green Party addressed the issue of climate change seriously but failed to connect it properly with other larger issues. One respondent observed that there are essentially two Green camps in the country today: “the deforestationists who need to be more flexible in managing the country’s development and the environmentalists who are losing strength due to their radical behaviour and non-conciliatory attitude.” Another point of view was that for real change to come about, citizens need to become aware and mobilise themselves to pressure the government.

CoP 16, Cancun: Brazil’s negotiating position and likely outcomes

Nearly all the respondents felt that Brazil’s stance at the conference would be determined by the results of the upcoming elections. One respondent felt that, of the two presidential candidates, Dilma Rousseff (President Lula’s former Chief of Staff and the leading candidate) was likely to be less innovative on Green issues , while Jose Serra (the right-of-centre candidate) might enforce more rules and standards. However, regardless of the elections outcome, nearly everyone felt that Brazil had the potential to be a world leader in climate change provided it played a more assertive role.

A number of issues are considered to be of importance to Brazil at the conference: carbon emission and neutralisation, clean energy, change of technology, clean water, and transportation. However, while there is much to be discussed and resolved at CoP 16, Cancun, some respondents felt that there would be no practical benefits, at least in the short term – this pessimism was driven by the uncertainty about leadership and the Copenhagen debâcle. Others felt that the ball would be in the Western nations’ court and that, at the moment, Brazil could contribute mainly through constructive discussions. A few respondents felt that Brazil should continue its climate-change-related work, especially battling deforestation, as this would help the country achieve a positive image and international credibility at the conference – this would lead to more investments, which in turn would help fund the development of clean, Green, and sustainable technologies.

Global Green – Brazil on the world stage

An overwhelming majority of the respondents felt that Brazil was cooperative, was interested in finding solutions to climate change, and had handled international negotiations skilfully in the last few years. President Lula’s position has been conducive to Brazil becoming a key climate change player on the global stage – a couple of respondents pointed out that this strategy might be in the President’s interest as well (since he would be searching for a global role after he steps down as President).

Nearly all the interviewees felt Brazil would participate in some kind of global alliance but were unsure about specifics, saying that the details would depend on the outcome of the elections. Many felt that Brazil was being held hostage by more powerful countries like the US and China. On the other hand, one respondent felt that Brazil would unite, mainly with developing countries, because they were the key decision makers. Some interviewees were of the opinion that if Brazil could successfully showcase its positive work in the climate change field, then it would be in a situation to garner support and form alliances. Additionally, one journalist felt that while the November conference may not yield such participation, Rio +20 almost certainly would.

Climate change policy: Effective or lacking?

Respondents almost unanimously felt that the government was not doing enough at a policy level – the Brazilian government’s policies are timid and not clear enough. Most interviewees were not aware of any proposal or mechanism directly related to global warming, though there is some amount of legislation in areas like the development of advanced technology of clean energy and restoring the rivers. Another mentioned stringent new requirements for sustainability in responding to government tenders. However, the general perception is that a lot of legislation is seen only on paper. One respondent brought up a particularly interesting point: even with some really advanced laws, there are reversals that put climate change on a lower level of importance; one instance of this is the proposed scaling back of Brazil’s progressive forest code, which would lead to large-scale deforestation and a massive increase in CO2 levels. All in all, the government’s climate-change-related policies need be stronger and should be rethought in light of the fact that economic development can be accompanied by sustainability if there is an understanding between the government and society.

India

In India, where a massive percentage of the country’s population is dependant on natural resources, climate change isn’t just a theory to debate but an important issue to tackle; it has a direct impact on the economy and, thus, can’t be ignored. This was the gist of the interviews from the various Indian informants we spoke with, who felt that being Green is no longer just a trendy cause to embrace amongst the more than one billion strong population of this rapidly booming economy. Indeed, as one respondent recalled, a few years ago, a leading Indian news channel asked people from various Indian cities what they considered the three biggest problems facing India – and the environment came out at the top of the list. However, despite the urgency of the climate change issue, all interviewees agreed that policy-makers seemed to not have taken adequate notice of the growing popular sentiment.

The media, too, is not prioritising the issue – even though it is covering far more climate-change-related stories today than ever before. A number of reasons contribute to this lack of prioritisation, including the unavailability of accurate scientific data, the increasing localisation of media, and the complex nature of the climate change issue itself (more specifically, the inability to extract pithy “one-liners” from climate change material).

Responding to climate change: Politicians and corporations

Regardless of their ideological leanings, all but one of the interviewees felt that climate change was not a critical issue for political parties. Reasons for this range from the lack of scientific advisors in the government to the fact that the issue is still perceived as an elite concern by the political establishment. An interesting perspective came from a journalist working for a prominent news channel who said that the opposition parties (especially the communist parties) were taking an interest in the issue but mainly so that they can gather evidence of the party in power pandering to, what they perceive to be, the imperialistic ambitions of the US, expressed through imposition of damaging environmental requirements. A number of interviewees said that the business sector was largely unconcerned. However, certain respondents felt that some companies had been proactive in adopting cleaner technology doe to economic factors and had also been engaging with the issue through CSR initiatives.

CoP 16, Cancun: India’s negotiating position and likely outcomes

Will India and other developing nations convince the world they hold the key to emissions reductions, and that these reductions need to be done on their own terms? Or will the country form a coalition with other countries to take advantage of schemes such

as REDD? These were some of the ideas discussed by our various respondents. One interesting thought came from a journalist working with an international news service who said that India had adopted a sensible and mature stance in negotiations and that China, Brazil, and India were seen as an important camp with substantial bargaining power. Regardless of the many opinions, however, all our respondents uniformly felt that India would not compromise on the scale and nature of its development to accommodate climate concerns through caps on emissions.

International climate agreements: Deal-maker or deal-breaker?

Many respondents agreed that India was an increasingly powerful presence in the international climate change context. While the country’s contingent view themselves as deal-makers, India is often seen as a deal-breaker by various camps. One point of view was that this perception is driven by India’s non-alignment with countries in the global north; on the other hand, blocks such as the Small Island Developing States and other developing nations feel let down by India.

Dr. R. K. Pachauri: The aftermath of “Climate-gate ”

The interviewees were almost unanimous about the fact that the impact of the scandals was very low. However, one respondent felt that Dr. Pachauri’s reputation had suffered. The respondent said that there had been a sharp increase in climate change scepticism after the scandals and the IPCC’s incorrect estimations of the speed with which Himalayan glaciers were melting were particularly harmful.

South Africa

The carbon tax

Despite the popular perception amongst respondents that the South African government should definitely be doing more to combat greenhouse gas emissions, the government did introduce the contentious “carbon tax” (an environmental tax aimed at reducing emissions) only weeks ago on September 1, 2010. South Africa is one of the few developing countries in the world to implement this much-discussed tax in an effort to limit greenhouse gas emissions in the country. Respondents acknowledged this as a step in the right direction – at the very least, it would drive awareness of the climate change issues the world was facing and perhaps motivate citizens to make individual contributions. However, many felt that that the move would have a much more powerful impact if the South African government would issue a statement to illustrate how the money raised through this tax was being deployed, e.g., like developing CO2 reducing technologies.

Green Growth

Widespread poverty was cited as one of the main reasons by many of our respondents when discussing why their governments are not prioritising climate change concerns. So, what if there was a strategy that could combat poverty, spur development, and benefit the environment – all at the same time? This is one of the ideas fleshed out by Resource Media’s Kirk Brown in his “Green Growth” paper. While Green growth strategies have been part of environmental, development, and population policy discussions for years, a comprehensive agenda for developing countries – backed by clear evidence about the costs, benefits, and specific policy and development assistance pathways for supporting Green growth – has yet to emerge. Green Growth outlines how targeted investment can help build the case for Green growth strategies that could boost living standards for billions of people worldwide. Additionally, in the climate arena, ensuring that a new effort is led by the Global South could help counter concerns that international climate policy requires the South to slow down its development, thus paying the price for the North’s historical pollution.

Kirk Brown believes that Green technologies and practices create “leapfrog” development opportunities that save lives, enhance human rights, increase prosperity, and offer substantial environmental benefits, including reducing greenhouse gas pollution. Some of the development strategies that fit this profile include increased cell phone infrastructure, improving cook stoves, and providing voluntary family planning services to the hundreds of millions of women who want them today. These strategies provide extraordinary return on investment – in emerging economies, like India and Brazil, the market opportunities are massive. They also meet the stated development priorities of countries from the Global South who stand to benefit the most from their widespread adoption.

Take, for instance, a recent analytical work that shows how the links between climate and voluntary family planning provide potential criteria for ways that a larger initiative on Green growth could organise its work. The project illustrated how small yet significant changes could help women around the world avoid unwanted pregnancies. For developing countries, like India, Brazil, and South Africa, this would be beneficial in multiple ways: reducing poverty, improving the standard of living by breaking the cycle of large families and poverty, empowering women, reducing child mortality (which increases dramatically when women cannot access voluntary family planning services), and substantially reducing carbon emissions.

Please contact us for more information on Green Growth.

1. Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation (REDD) is a methodology designed to offer financial incentives for developing countries to reduce emissions from deforestation and forest degradation.

2. As the former Minister of Energy as well as Chief of Staff in President Lula’s government, Dilma Rousseff clashed quite often with the then Minister of Environment, Marina Silva, over development policies that the latter considered extremely detrimental to the environment.

3. This refers to certain Indian businesses that have been taking advantage of the clean development mechanism under the Kyoto Protocol.

4. In 2010, there were widespread allegations of corruption against Dr. R.K. Pachauri. Audit firm KPMG subsequently cleared Dr. Pachauri. There were also demands that Dr. Pachauri resign as head of the IPCC, following the release of an incorrect projection regarding Himalayan glacier melt. He refused to step down and the IPCC later retracted the controversial claim.