Baird's CMC | A Unique Global Communications Management Consultancy

Global Health Discourse 2023

Tel: +44 (0) 1495 828300
Email: team@bairdscmc.com
  • E-mail
  • LinkedIn
  • Twitter
Menu
  • Home
    • Sexual and Reproductive Health
    • Stakeholder Mapping & Strategy
    • New Services
    • Qualitative & Policy
    • Communications and Management Consultancy
    • Close
  • About us
    • Privacy Policy
    • Our specialist areas
    • Case studies
      • EDCTP sub-Saharan Africa policy research
      • Emerging Democracies and Green Issues
      • Gauging Attitudes Toward an HIV Vaccine
      • Increasing Immunization Coverage in Central India
      • Close
    • Close
  • Network
    • Network map
    • Associates
      • Michael Acott
      • Ashoek Adhikari
      • Francois Baird
      • Gerhard Butschi
      • Steve Bowers
      • Mark Chataway
      • Lenore Cooney
      • Paul Dillon
      • Marta Dourado
      • Martina Dörmann
      • Dirk Van Eeden
      • Alexandra Fullem
      • Frederick Fussi
      • Ingrid Gavshon MBA
      • Denise Gee
      • Denise Gray-Felder
      • Bert Griesel
      • Aman Gupta
      • Darren Jones
      • Danie Kok
      • Andrzej Kropiwnicki
      • Angelle Kwemo
      • Nikolay Kudryashov
      • Mari Lee
      • Simba Makoni
      • Steve Mallach
      • Terry Mandel
      • Matshidiso Masire
      • Valeria McFarren
      • Hugh McKinney
      • Chris Opperman
      • Ken Rabin
      • Mark Rittenberg
      • Simon Russell
      • Jacob Sesinyi
      • Melinda Shaw
      • Cormac Smith
      • James Snodgrass
      • Hema Viswanathan
      • Mina Volovitch
      • Gillian Waddell
      • Joseph Makwata Wambia
      • Chris Ward
      • Gysbert J Wessels
      • Marion Zibelli
      • Close
    • Senior consultants
      • Simon Hardie
      • Close
    • Close
  • Services
    • New Services
      • Media Training
      • Presentation Skills
      • Staff Engagement
      • Reputation Management
      • Close
    • Services
      • Communications counsel
      • New media strategy
      • Advocacy and coalition building
      • Crisis management
      • Market research
      • Strategic planning
      • Staff training and development
      • Risk management and mitigation
      • Close
    • Close
  • Sectors
    • Vaccine Hesitancy
    • Pharma in top 15 markets
    • Pharma in emerging markets
    • Pharma in underdeveloped markets
    • Pharma headquarters planning teams on market assessment
    • Global Development: Health Issues
    • Global Development: Environmental Issues
    • Health equity and access to care
    • Reproductive health and population
    • Vaccines
    • International Donors
    • Government Relations
    • Political Consulting
    • Telecom Sector
    • Financial Services
    • Close
  • News
  • ShopTalk
  • Get in Touch

Protest in the Middle East: Fight or Flight?

The Middle East so far has two role models for dealing with pro-democracy protests; Iran and Tunisia. They represent a choice as old as man; fight or flight. The rarer choice is a peaceful transition to legitimate democracy.

The fight impulse requires confidence and guns to succeed. In Iran, the protesters are being violently repressed by a regime willing to wage war against its own people, confident that the military and the other security forces will carry out the will of the government against the people and to commit whatever atrocities necessary to bring the protests under control. Violent suppression can succeed in its aims for a long time, as the Mugabe government in Zimbabwe and the North Korean dictatorship demonstrate. However, suppression has a sell-by date, even if the date itself is almost always a surprise. See East Germany, 1989.

The flight impulse results from a lack of confidence and insecurity about which way the guns will point. In Tunisia, the government lost confidence in its own ability to suppress the unrest by committing the security forces to violence against its people. Lacking confidence, the leadership fled and the protests seem to be evolving into a successful revolution. The early euphoria is no guarantee of legitimate democracy being successfully established.

Illegitimate regimes only have a choice between fight or flight. There are no other options once the populace decide to challenge the regime en masse. The genius of legitimate democracy is that it creates stability by allowing a third choice: peaceful democratic transition. South Africa is a rare example of peaceful transition to legitimate democracy from an undemocratic state.

The uprisings in the Middle East will only succeed where the regime lacks the will to turn guns on its people. Most protests would most likely be suppressed. It is not yet clear whether even successful uprisings will eventually result in legitimate democracy.

As for Egypt specifically, its people could yet win this one if the world’s democracies put pressure on the Egyptian government to create conditions for a peaceful transition to legitimate democracy. If not, Egyptions will learn to regret the lack of will amongst the world’s democracies, if the Egyption generals shortly make the decision to fight. Of course the generals may in turn regret such a choice, but in the longer term. Suppress in haste, regret at leisure…

If there is a successful revolution or a peaceful transition through legitimate elections in Egypt, the dictators in the Middle East are all doomed in due course. Then, the clock may run out faster for suppression in the Middle East than now expected. Will we see fight or flight, or dare we dream that the rara avis of peaceful transition to legitimate democracy could take off anywhere or even everywhere in the Middle East?

Share this:

  • Click to share on Twitter (Opens in new window)
  • Click to share on Facebook (Opens in new window)
  • More
  • Click to share on LinkedIn (Opens in new window)
  • Click to email this to a friend (Opens in new window)

Related

Filed Under: ShopTalk Tagged With: Arab Spring, democracy, Egypt, Middle East

Contact Us

    Your Name (required)

    Your Email (required)

    Subject

    Your Message

    Please enter the letters below and press Send

    captcha

    Latest Blog Posts

    Welcome

    An astonishing decline in child immunisation numbers in Africa amid the rage of COVID-19, yet another victim of the pandemic

    Global Elite are Bored with Health, Just When It’s Getting Really Exciting

    Copyright © 2023 All rights reserved. Sitemap